81% of Home Sellers Believe Home Prices will Continue to Rise
esponses to Redfin’s Real-Time Seller Survey present a classic good news / bad news scenario. The good news is that homeowner confidence continues to rise—22 percent of sellers believe now is a good time to sell, up from just 15 percent three months ago—indicating a potential easing of tight inventory in the coming months. The bad news is that many would-be sellers continue to opt for renting out their home rather than selling, so any increases in listings are likely to be modest. Even when (or if) more inventory comes, it’s likely to hit later this year than most years, as many sellers have shifted their timelines a few months into the future.
After watching the housing market become increasingly seller-friendly throughout 2012, the year closed with sellers indicating an increasingly positive outlook. Here’s what sellers told us this quarter:
- 34.1 percent indicated that missing out on future price gains was a major concern about selling now—up from 30.6 percent last quarter and overtaking general economic conditions (33.8 percent, down from 39.7 percent in the fourth quarter) as the top concern;
- 49 percent of respondents indicated that they were planning to sell, up from 45 percent in the fourth quarter;
- 21 percent of those not planning to sell are renting out their home, while 47 percent of those who areplanning to sell would also consider renting out their home instead of selling, up from 43 percent in the fourth quarter;
- 22 percent believe it is a good time to sell, up from 15 percent last quarter, while 54 percent believe it is a good time to buy, down from 58 percent last quarter; and
- 81 percent of sellers believe that home prices will rise in their area in the next 12 months, up from 75 percent in the fourth quarter.
Last quarter we began to see slight changes that indicated seller confidence was slowly increasing. While we had hoped that this would lead to increased inventory in 2013, that has not happened… yet. Thankfully, all of the signals that began turning positive in the fourth quarter moved even more strongly in that direction this quarter. As sellers continue to gain more certainty in the market, the prospects for improved inventory will only get better.
About the Survey
This quarter’s seller survey took place over five days beginning last Thursday (January 17 to 21, 2013), We surveyed 1,847 people who had used Redfin in the last three months and who indicated that they were a homeowner. 895 of the respondents indicated an intention to sell his or her home at some point in the foreseeable future, while 930 respondents were not planning to sell. The results span 20 metropolitan markets in the U.S.: Atlanta, Austin, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, New York, Orange County, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Riverside / San Bernardino, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington DC.
Data and charts are below. If you’d like to review more detailed data, please contact press (at) redfin (dot) com. If there are questions you’d like us to include in the survey next time, please leave a comment below.